HOW NIGERIA’S CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INDUCING EXTREME RAINFALL

The cost in future of the emerging climate scenario for Lagos is too expensive to wait. As the loss for Nigeria is projected to be between 2 per cent and 11 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP by 2020, rising to between 6 per cent and 30 per cent by the year 2050. In naira terms this loss is equivalent to between N15 trillion and N69 trillion, writes Prof. Chinedum Nwajiuba. He says that bolder urban renewal; redesign and re-conceptualisation will take Lagos out of its recent quagmire.

By Prof. Chinedum Nwajiuba

Culled from The Guardian, Monday, 18 July 2011  

THE extreme weather event, in this case extreme rainfall in Lagos early last week, was neither restricted to Lagos State, nor did it cover the entire Lagos State. This justifies the need for more dense collection of meteorological data because huge variation is often the case. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), already playing a commendable role, has to be supported in this regard. Other Agencies and institutions with interest in climate and weather matters should also be encouraged and supported to collate relevant data. This is very important for Nigeria to have better understanding of the current and future climate parameters.

The Nigerian Environmental Study Action team (NEST) has been engaged for a quarter of a century with research, advocacy, and actions on the threats and opportunities with respect to the Nigerian Environment. In the last five years NEST has been implementing the Canadian International Agency (CIDA) – funded Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change (BNRCC) project. This is perhaps the most extensive and intensive project on climate change in Nigeria.     However, a major component of the BNRCC has been developing a National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action for Nigeria, in partnership with the Special Climate Change (SCCU) of the Federal Ministry of Environment. Interesting, Lagos is one state in Nigeria that the BNRCC is developing a state adaptation strategy and plan.   This document is in the last stage and was partly presented at the last Lagos summit on climate change. These strategies at the National and Lagos state levels are based on current as well as projected climate scenarios for Nigeria. The later aspect of future climate scenarios, NEST has done in partnership with researchers at the University of Cape Town, South Africa. The lessons of these are very relevant to recent experience in Nigeria, especially Lagos state, but also for all states and ecologies of Nigeria. Details of these as well as recommendations for the Federal, state, Local Governments, NGOs, communities and individual holds are in the Draft national Adaptation Strategy and plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN).

There are four climate issues or related issues, which BNRCC has isolated and which are emphasized in the adaptation strategies. These are temperature, rainfall, extreme weather events and rising sea level. The experience in the last decade in Nigeria, which are projected to increase in the coming decades include rising average temperatures all over Nigeria, but most significantly in the Northeast of Nigeria.

The coastal regions have positive moderating effects of the ocean on the rising temperatures hence this is milder in the coast. In Nigeria’s north, especially the Northeast, the rising average daily temperature is more critical and areas around Maiduguri already experience significant increase in the number of days with mean average temperature above 40 degrees Celsius. This is projected to increase with adverse consequences for human livelihoods as well as crops and livestock production. Around some of Nigeria’s most important food producing areas of the Savannah including Nasarawa, Benue and Taraba, Plateau, Gombe, and Niger states, but also Borno State among others, rising temperatures could be a disincentive to labour productivity, as we know that the main source of far energy is the human labour. The low level of mechanisation and huge rural out-migration will hamper domestic production and further compromise food security. Such crops as maize, yams, onion, tomatoes, potatoes, sorghum, millet, cowpea, and oranges are among the most potentially affected. Rising temperature have been implicated in drying aquifers, stream, rivulets and rivers, falling well water levels and other health challenges including meningitis and kidney stones.

Rising temperatures in the highlands of Nigeria has been implicated in increased incidences of malaria. Communities in the highlands of the Mambila and Obudu on the eastern flanks of Nigeria have reported these. The BNRCC also has reports of increased cassava production in the Obudu area than hitherto the case. These suggest that while most consequences of rising temperature in Nigeria are adverse, some possible positive consequences may also exist, as cassava is a critical crop for food security especially among the poor. Possible positive consequences of climate change for Nigeria is still under investigated.

With respect to rainfall, aggregate volume of rainfall in the country is not showing much change, but what is very important is variation across the country. For instance while rainfall volume is expected to decline in Nigeria’s northern region of the Savannah and in the Sahel, the Rainforest and Coast already experience more rainfall. These trends in the country are expected to continue. The reduced rainfall in the north is consistent with the rising temperatures in that region. Important is that most of Nigeria’s food production is in the Savannah and this is mostly rain-fed. This recommends re-conceptualization of Nigeria’s approach to irrigation and development of varieties more resistant to drought. This also puts pressure on livestock production systems, human health management, and settlement patterns.

In the rainforest what is occurring and which projections are expected to worsen are changes in the dates of commencement and cessation of rainfall. The observed trends are later on-set of rainfall but earlier dates of cessation. Yet the total volume in the year is not changing significantly. What this suggests is more intensive rainfall, which worsens gully and sheet erosions. Currently state governments in most of Nigeria’s rainforest areas seem not bothered by these threats compared to their contemporaries in Nigeria’s Sahel-Savannah frontiers states challenged by the emergence of desert-like conditions and those on the coast, especially Lagos, Delta and Cross River states, challenged by increased rainfall, sea level rise and flooding.

However, in isolated cases we find desperate communities pressured by gully erosion take community-based actions to enforce rainwater harvesting and collection to protect typically, access roads into and around the communities. This, as found by the BNRCC around Aguata areas of Anambra State is backed by community legislation and enforcement. In areas around Nigeria’s southeast which major staple crop is cassava, a major contributor to food security in Nigeria, the consequences of increased rainfall for that crop is not completely understood, and if there is optimal rain conditions or indeed if there can be a point at which cassava production becomes threatened by increased rainfall. This is an issue for further examination.

In the Coastal regions, rainfall volume is already increased and is projected to increase further this century. In addition to rising sea levels, which may occur due to wider global reasons such as rising temperatures, melting solid waters in the temperature regions of the world, and other reasons, puts most of these coastal cities and communities at risk. Already from the BNRCC research we have seen island communities off the coast of Nigeria’s Delta state submerged. Interestingly a very significant proportion of Nigeria’s Industrial, power/Energy, transport and other infrastructure and facilities are located along the coast. A significant proportion of Nigerians live also along the coast, especially in Lagos, Warri, Port Harcourt, and Calabar.

Also in this region, many inhabitants depended on coastal water resources especially for fishing. The rural fish-based economies often have men as fishermen and the women as sellers of the fish. The indicators are that increased sea level and increased turbulence hamper fishing and fish trade and therefore threatens economic well being in those communities. There have also been reported cases of sea water intrusion into inland waters which informed the BNRCC pilot projects creating alternative livelihoods in form of fish farms for fisher folks in coastal communities in Cross Rivers State. Nigeria’s coastal communities, cities and economic hubs are threatened by increased rainfall and rising sea level, as well as extremes of these which constitute extreme weather events, as seen this July in Lagos, Nigeria’s economic and financial capital.

There is no climate parameter called extreme weather events just as rising sea level is not. However, an extreme weather event arises when classical weather and climate events occur in an atypical manner. An example is when daily average rainfall exceeds 50mm. This may also be the case with sever windstorms, or a combination of wind, thunderstorms and rainfall. It could also occur with sever rising temperatures, often with absence of rainfall for extended periods.

In Nigeria’s north for instance severe wind often lead to very mobile sand dunes overrunning oases and homesteads. Such wind storms could in some cases manifest as dust hazes over the skyline which as we saw in March 2011 disrupted aviation and flights even up to Lagos and Port Harcourt. BNRCC project in the Northeast in partnership with researchers at the University of Maiduguri has focused on sand dunes stabilization.

It is not that each of these climate related parameters of temperature and, rainfall do not vary. They have always varied, hence climate variability. When however they occur in severities not typical or occur simultaneously they become extreme. The observed trends on all of these parameters are the frequencies of occurrence have increased and are also projected to increase through this century. The consequences of these are evident in the health and security challenges in Nigeria, especially along Nigeria’s northeast and eastern flanks where pressures on livelihood contribute to migration, competitions for resources between man and man and between man and animals leading to social conflicts. Cases of rising meningitis and kidney stones have been reported in the Sokoto and Maiduguri areas.

Nigeria is very susceptible to climate change due to her physical locations and characteristics as well as her socioeconomic situation. Nigeria has a long coastline with several island and coastal communities. Nigeria’s coastal cities are very critical to her economic health and well being of her people. Nigeria also has significant parts along the North very vulnerable to desert-like conditions, arising from human and livestock activities, deforestation for fodder and wood fuel, as well as changing climate conditions. These are worsened by the pressure of survival and the search for livelihood and agricultural purposes. With respect to Nigeria’ socioeconomic circumstances, majority of Nigerians are poor.

These factors make most Nigeria’s vulnerable to climate change and create low resilience capabilities. Rising population growth, food insecurity, poor health facilities and access are among some existing challenges of development in Nigeria to which climate change adds.

While the dominant idea is that poverty renders people very vulnerable to climate change. Nigeria has a unique case as has been in Lagos in the last week that both the poor and rich could be similarly vulnerable. Some of Nigeria’s most expensive properties are along the coast in Lagos. These include Victoria Island and such new estates in Lagos as around Lekki, emerging cities as Yenagoa, the capital of Nigeria’s Bayelsa State, among others. The nature of planning and development of these areas is something that requires some thinking. The nature of Nigeria, urban development and the quality of drainage are some of what should be addressed. These have implications for the finance and insurance industry in Nigeria, as well as the emergency and crises management abilities of the country.

The cost in future of the emerging climate scenario for Lagos is too expensive to wait. As an illustration, in one study (DFID/ERM, 2009), the loss for Nigeria is projected to be between 2per cent and 11 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP by 2020, rising to between 6 per cent and 30 per cent by the year 2050. In naira terms this loss is equivalent to between N15 trillion and N69 trillion. Most of this will realistically be borne by Lagos, considering the spatial distribution of Nigeria’s economy. In the coming months as we conclude the Lagos Adaptation Strategy and Plan as well as the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action, a series of events are planned around the country to show case the results to stakeholders and pass on the lessons for policy as well for change of attitudes by Nigerians in some ways we live and act that contributes to the events we saw in Lagos this week. One that readily comes to mind is the need for bolder urban renewal, redesign and reconceptualisation of what Lagos ought to be.